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Cheaper twin · England · historical area comparison

Newton Heath vs Harpurhey: about 42% lower estimated £/m²

42% lower estimated £/m²

Compare M40 5 and M9 4: a 42% gap in sector estimates, with matching criteria and remaining differences. This is an area-level comparison, not a matched-home saving.

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A price gap between nearby areas

Newton Heath (M40 5) and Harpurhey (M9 4) have centroids about 1.18 km apart and met the historical matching thresholds below. Their median estimated £/m² differs by 42.2%. They remain different areas with different property samples; the comparison does not identify why prices differ.

Archived sector summaries. Differences are right minus left, calculated before rounding.
MeasureNewton Heath (M40 5) Harpurhey (M9 4)Difference
Median estimated £/m²£2,812£1,626−£1,186 (42.2% lower)
Illustration at 90 m²£253,080£146,340−£106,740
Modal property typeTerracedTerracedSame modal type
Modal property type share (%)46.764.4+17.8 pp
Median construction year1,9581,940-18 years
Good+ primary catchments (weighted mean)2.2573.458+1.201
Good+ secondary catchments (weighted mean)2.5903.000+0.410
Nearest station (weighted mean km)0.7191.214+0.495 km
Serious crime (annual, 7-year mean)0.000.00+0.00
Owner-occupied share (%)41.034.7-6.3 pp
Degree-or-higher share (%)24.726.7+2.0 pp
Local median age (weighted mean)36.332.3-4.0 years
Median floor area (m²)79.076.0-3.0 m²
Property rows (N)1,6323,530+1,898
Properties with recorded £/m²5251,366+841

How the areas were compared

“Cheaper twins” are nearby postcode sectors similar on selected observed metrics, with different median estimated prices per square metre. These are descriptive area comparisons. They do not establish a price premium caused by a postcode name or show that individual homes are equivalent.

The price gap is 100 × (1 − lower sector estimate ÷ higher sector estimate). Multiplying each sector estimate by 90 m² gives an illustration at a fixed floor area, not the price or saving on a matched home. Price medians include all property types in each sector; sharing a modal property type does not make the full housing mix identical.

Exact matching criteria and selection
  • England postcode sectors with at least 150 property rows and 40 property rows with non-null recorded £/m²; positive, non-null median estimated £/m² and non-null centroid coordinates and station distance.
  • Centroids at most 3 km apart, using the original local planar approximation: x = longitude × 111.320 × cos(mean index latitude), y = latitude × 110.574.
  • Same modal property type; finite median construction years, excluding years ≤1800, differing by at most 30 years.
  • Good+ primary and secondary school catchment counts each differ by at most 1.5. This does not require the same schools or guarantee admission.
  • Mean nearest-station distance at most 1.5 km in each sector, with a difference of at most 0.9 km. Per postcode, this is the minimum straight-line distance to rail, Tube, DLR or tram/metro stops. It does not require the same station or commute.
  • Serious-crime annual averages over the source’s seven-year window within a factor of 1.5 in either direction. These are counts, not population-adjusted rates.
  • Owner-occupied share differs by at most 22 percentage points; degree-or-higher share by at most 22 percentage points. Deprivation was not a separate matching variable.
  • Median age differs by at most 12 years when both values are finite; otherwise this check is skipped.
  • Ratio of higher-price sector median floor area to lower-price sector median floor area between 0.72 and 1/0.72 (about 1.389), when both are finite and the latter is positive; otherwise this check is skipped.
  • Estimated £/m² gap between 15% and 45%, with an illustrative gap of at least £20,000 at 90 m². For each higher-price sector, retain the qualifying candidate with the largest percentage gap, then deduplicate unordered pairs.

Property statistics are medians over property rows. Area metrics and centroids are means weighted by the number of property rows in each postcode, excluding null metric values from the denominator. School counts are modelled catchment counts, not school quality scores. Missing values in the original implementation were not uniformly rejected; a published pair is not a complete-data guarantee.

The archived run produced 415 candidate pairs. The published subset took the six largest illustrative 90 m² gaps overall, eight largest among terraced/semi-detached/detached sectors outside E, EC, WC, W, SW, SE, N and NW postal areas, and six largest among those property types within those postal areas, removing duplicates. This selection favours large gaps and is not a representative sample of England.

What can still explain the gap?

The tables show the remaining observed differences, rather than assuming they are zero. Interior quality, layout, lease length, service charges, exact micro-location, property tenure mix, sale timing, new-build concentration and selection into the data can still differ. Matching a few sector summaries does not control all of these. A “name premium” is a hypothesis; this analysis does not estimate its causal contribution.

Historical analysis preserved in the repository on 3 July 2026. The source extraction dates and sale observation window were not recorded in the archived outputs. These are not current market quotations; the live map may use newer data. Both columns come from separate sector summaries in that same archive. Download the sector summaries, parameters and provenance. Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

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